| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 06:00 | Germany | CPI, m/m | June | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | Manufacturing Production (MoM) | May | -1.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| 06:00 | Germany | CPI, y/y | June | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.2% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | Industrial Production (MoM) | May | -0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | GDP m/m | May | 0% | 0.2% | 0.4% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar declined slightly against major currencies, while investors are cautious ahead of the publication of US inflation data, which may affect the timing of the Fed's monetary policy easing.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) fell by 0.07% to 104.98. As for the data, the June US CPI report will be published at 12:30 GMT. The May CPI report provided another welcome indication that inflation is slowing again after a sharp rise at the beginning of the year. The overall consumer price index remained unchanged for the month, which was the first unchanged value since July 2022. Falling energy prices and a slight rise in food prices helped keep the overall consumer price index under control. The core consumer price index rose by 0.2%, which was the smallest increase since August 2021. It is encouraging that steady service sector inflation has finally shown signs of easing, largely due to lower prices for airline tickets, vehicle insurance and accommodation away from home. The CPI is expected to have increased by 0.1% m/m in June, which corresponds to an increase of 3.1% year-on-year. The core CPI, according to forecasts, increased by 0.2% compared to May and by 3.5% per annum. If the data confirms expectations or turns out to be below forecasts, this will strengthen the arguments in favor of easing the Fed's monetary policy in September. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 4.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed meeting in July, a 73.3% probability of a rate cut in September, and a 85.1% probability of monetary policy easing in November.
The pound rose moderately against the US dollar, reaching a 4-month high, helped by UK GDP data. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that the economy expanded by 0.4% in May after stagnating in April. Experts expected GDP growth of 0.2%. Looking over the longer term, GDP is estimated to have grown by 1.0% in the three months to May compared with the three months to May 2023. In annual terms, GDP grew by 1.4% in May, accelerating compared to April (+0.7%, revised +0.6%), and exceeding economists' forecasts (+1.2%). This was the strongest growth since January 2023. After the publication of GDP data, futures markets show traders attach a roughly 50% chance of the Bank of England cutting rates at its Aug 1 meeting.