The Conference
Board (CB) announced on Monday its employment trends index (ETI) for the U.S.,
a leading composite indicator for employment, fell by 0.7 per cent to 110.27 in
June from a downwardly revised 111.04 (from 111.44) in May.
According to the
report, last month’s drop in the ETI was due to negative contributions from 4
of its 8 components, including Percentage of Firms with Positions Not Able to
Fill Right Now, Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry,
Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, and Job Openings.
Commenting on
the latest data, Will Baltrus, associate economist at the CB, said that the
ETI’s downtick signals employment could decrease in the second half of 2024 but
noted that the indicator remains above its pre-pandemic level, and payrolls
growth remains healthy, albeit at a reduced pace compared to the outsized gains
experienced during the pandemic recovery.
“While June’s ETI suggests an aggregate reduction in employment ahead, we
anticipate the labour market will only cool modestly. Indeed, as long as
companies are willing to retain workers, net nonfarm payrolls are likely to
remain positive,” he added.