| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 06:00 | Germany | Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) | May | 0.1% | 0.2% | -2.5% |
| 06:45 | France | Industrial Production, m/m | May | 0.6% | -0.5% | -2.1% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar fell slightly against major currencies, continuing yesterday's decline and reaching its lowest level since June 13, while investors prepare for the publication of key data on the US labor market.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) fell by 0.12% to 105.00. The key event on Friday will be the publication of the nonfarm payrolls report for June (at 12:30 GMT). A slew of economic data showing a cooling U.S. economy has reinforced expectations that the Fed will begin easing monetary policy later this year. Now markets are pricing in potentially two rate cuts this year. But much will depend on upcoming data: a weaker-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report should further strengthen expectations of a rate cut and put pressure on the dollar. Economists expect employment to rise by 190,000 in June after increasing by 272,000 in May, while the unemployment rate remained at 4%. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 8.8% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed meeting in July, a 72.6% probability of a rate cut in September, and a 83.2% probability of monetary policy easing in November.
The pound rose 0.15% against the US dollar, reaching its highest level since June 13, as the Labour party was poised to win a massive majority in the UK general election, giving investors some confidence after years of market volatility under the Conservatives. Meanwhile, experts said that the Labour Party is likely to use the mandate to raise taxes and consolidate government spending, which could help the Bank of England in curbing inflation.
The yen rose 0.3% against the US dollar, retreating from the 38-year high, but traders still fear intervention from the Japanese government. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said today that authorities will closely monitor both the stock and foreign exchange markets with a sense of urgency.