| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 01:30 | Australia | Retail Sales, M/M | May | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.6% |
| 01:30 | Australia | Building Permits, m/m | May | -0.3% | 1.6% | 5.5% |
| 01:45 | China | Markit/Caixin Services PMI | June | 54.0 | 53.4 | 51.2 |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar rose slightly against major currencies, partially offsetting yesterday's drop caused by dovish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) rose by 0.08% to 105.80. Powell said yesterday that the US economy has made significant progress in fighting inflation, although he added that additional supporting data is needed to start lowering interest rates. He also noted that although there has been a significant shift in the U.S. labor market towards a better balance between supply and demand for workers, the labor market remains strong. Today, investors will focus on the ADP employment report for May, the services PMI from S&P Global and ISM, as well as minutes of the Fed's June meeting, which may provide new clues about the timing of monetary policy easing. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 8.8% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed meeting in July, a 65.3% probability of a rate cut in September, and a 77.2% probability of monetary policy easing in November.
The yen fell 0.3% against the US dollar, once again updating a 38-year low amid the increased likelihood of Donald Trump winning the presidential election, which could lead to higher yields on long-term treasury bonds. However, traders remain on high alert for another round of official Japanese intervention. Some speculated authorities could act on Thursday, when thin liquidity due to a U.S. holiday would exacerbate market moves.
The Chinese yuan fell to a 7-month low against the US dollar amid signs that local authorities are willing to tolerate its decline. Pressure on the yuan was also exerted by Chinese data, which showed that business activity in the services sector continued to expand in June (for the 18th month in a row), but the pace of expansion was the weakest since October 2023. This contributed to a reduction in optimism levels. Firms were also cautious about hiring additional staff. According to the report, the services PMI fell to 51.2 points from 54.0 points in May. Economists had expected a decline to 53.4 points.