Oil fell by about 0.6% on Friday, but is preparing to record the largest weekly increase - more than 3% - since the beginning of April after solid projections for crude and fuel demand.
OPEC said it forecasts relatively strong growth in global oil demand for 2024, with Goldman Sachs economists predicting steady fuel demand in the United States this summer. Experts said that oil prices may continue to rise, as the prospects for demand now look brighter, but much may depend on the dynamics of demand this summer in the northern hemisphere. The International Energy Agency said on Wednesday that it expects oil demand to peak by 2029 and stabilize at about 106 million barrels per day by the end of the decade.
However, oil was under pressure against the background of the outcome of the Fed meeting, which revised forecasts for interest rate forecasts. Policymakers' median projection for the number of cuts this year fell to just one, from three in March. Despite the Fed's projections, markets stuck with pricing in almost two 0,25% rate cuts this year. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 12.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed meeting in July, a 65.0% probability of a rate cut in September, and a 78.7% probability of monetary policy easing in November.
The market's focus also remains on the ongoing ceasefire negotiations in the Gaza Strip, which, if successful, will ease concerns about potential disruptions in oil supplies from the region.