| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 01:30 | Australia | Building Permits, m/m | April | 2.7% | 1.5% | -0.3% |
| 06:00 | Switzerland | Trade Balance | April | 2.8 | 2.4 | 3.9 |
| 07:00 | Switzerland | Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) | Quarter I | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar rose slightly against major currencies, continuing yesterday's rally and reaching its highest level since May 14, helped by higher US bond yields. Investors are also preparing for the publication of a new batch of US data.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) rose by 0.05% to 105.15. Yesterday, the index jumped by 0.44% in response to an increase in the yield of 10-year US bonds to the highest level since May 3. Today, investors will focus on the revised US GDP data for the 1st quarter, as well as the initial jobless claims report for last week. Economists expect GDP growth to slow to 1.4% QoQ from 3.4% QoQ in the 4th quarter, and initial jobless claims rose to 219 thousand from 215 thousand a week earlier. However, the key event of this week will be tomorrow's publication of the core personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), the Fed's preferred inflation indicator. Market participants hope that the new data will provide more clarity on the timing of the Fed's interest rate cut. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 12.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed meeting in July, a 47.0% probability of a rate cut in September, and a 59.4% probability of monetary policy easing in November, with traders pricing in 34 basis points of cuts this year compared with 150 basis points of easing priced in at the start of 2024.
The yen rose 0.5% against the US dollar, retreating from its lowest level since May 1, as investors' risk aversion fueled demand for safe-haven assets such as the Japanese currency. Investors also took profits after the recent collapse of the yen and adjusted their positions ahead of the publication of US inflation data. Yesterday, the yen returned to levels that spurred a rapid rebound that market players strongly suspect to have been driven by two rounds of dollar-selling intervention by the Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan.