Data published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that the consumer price index rose by 0.1% per annum in March after increasing by 0.7% per annum in February. Economists had expected prices to rise by 0.4% per annum. The notable slowdown came as the effects of the Lunar New Year waned. On a monthly basis, the CPI fell by 1%, offsetting the February increase (+1%), and recording the sharpest decline in 3 years. Consensus estimates suggested a 0.5% drop. The core CPI - excluding food and energy prices - rose by 0.6% per annum, compared with an increase of 1.2% per annum in February.
NBS also said that in March, producer prices fell by 2.8% per annum, as expected, slightly accelerating compared to February (-2.7% per annum). It was the 18th consecutive monthly decline and the sharpest drop since November 2023. Cost of means of production fell by 3.5% after a 3.4% decline in February, while prices for consumer goods decreased by 1.0%, accelerating compared to February (-0.9%). Price drops were also recorded for food (-1.3% vs -0.9% in February), durable goods (-1.8% vs -1.9%) and daily use goods (-0.1% vs 0%), while clothing inflation was steady (at 0.3%). Meanwhile, in the first quarter of 2024, producer prices fell by 2.7%. Overall, the latest data pointed to still weak demand, despite signs that the economy is regaining some momentum.