The S&P 500 broad
market index futures are down 0.45% to 5,531 points this
Monday, following a sharp 2.40% drop on Friday, signalling a critical situation.
The benchmark has shifted to a downside formation,
targeting 5,360–5,460 points, but the real downside driver—U.S. trade
policy—has yet to be fully priced in.
President Donald Trump has reaffirmed plans to
introduce reciprocal tariffs on every nation imposing tariffs on U.S. goods,
with no exceptions. He dismissed concerns about automakers raising prices due
to the new 25% tariffs on car and parts imports, stating he "couldn’t care
less." With no indication of a delay in the April 2 tariffs, uncertainty
remains high.
Large investors are in a holding pattern.
After a record $22.22 billion net outflow from the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
(SPY) in mid-March, last week saw only minor net inflows of $761.1 million
(excluding Friday). With major investors avoiding the market, additional
tariffs could push the S&P 500 to 5,360–5,460 points. In a worst-case
scenario, panic could drive the index down another 10% to extreme targets at
4,950–5,050 points.
Trump may overlook
market declines if he aims to pressure Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell into cutting interest rates, potentially removing
tariffs later to drive markets to new highs ahead of the 2026 midterm
elections.
Key economic data this week includes
Manufacturing PMIs on Tuesday, ADP Nonfarm Payrolls on Wednesday, and official
Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday. However, these figures are unlikely to
significantly impact the market amid tariff concerns. If Trump introduces
tariff exclusions or delays, stocks could recover, with Thursday’s
Manufacturing PMI and Friday’s payroll data potentially supporting a rebound.
In a negative scenario, stocks may continue falling until the Fed intervenes on
May 7.
Technically, the S&P 500 has entered a
downside formation. The nearest support at 5,540–5,560 is currently being tested;
if it fails, the benchmark could drop to primary targets at 5,360–5,460 points.
Resistance stands at 5,640–5,660 points, with a bullish breakout requiring a
push above 5,730–5,750 points.
Brent crude remains under pressure at $72.93
per barrel, weighed down by recession fears. Support is at $68.00–$70.00, while
resistance stands at $78.00–$80.00. Increasing geopolitical tensions in the
Middle East provide some support, but further upside remains limited. A break
below support could send prices down to $58.00–$60.00.
Gold continues its rally, reaching a new
all-time high at $3,127 per troy ounce, nearing extreme upside targets of
$3,150–$3,250. Profit-taking may emerge at these levels, with the nearest
support at $3,050–$3,080.
In the currency market, the U.S. Dollar
remains in a correction phase. The EURUSD has bounced from a low of 1.07320 but
still faces significant overbought pressure. A retracement toward 1.06000
appears likely as the pair struggles to find fresh upside momentum.