Bitcoin (BTC) is up by 4.3% this week, trading
at $93,001 after reaching a new all-time high of $93,984 on November 19. The
critical resistance at $89,000-91,000 has been decisively broken, paving the
way toward this year’s ultimate targets of $98,000-100,000.
A flurry of positive developments is driving
the rally. Notably, Nasdaq successfully launched spot Bitcoin ETF options
trading on Tuesday, with trading volume exceeding $2.0 billion in a single day
and a 4.4-to-1 ratio favoring call options. Investor sentiment remains bullish
as Trump Media & Technology Group nears its acquisition of crypto trading
firm Bakkt, causing Bakkt’s stock to surge by 162%. Additionally, President
Trump’s crypto-friendly stance is further boosting market optimism. Reports
suggest he plans to replace SEC Chair Gary Gensler with crypto advocate Teresa
Goody, signaling a potentially friendlier regulatory environment.
MicroStrategy announced ambitious plans to
raise $42.0 billion over three years through equity and share issuance to
expand its Bitcoin holdings. Meanwhile, institutional investors continue to
drive demand. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, including IBIT (BlackRock), FBTC (Fidelity),
and GBTC (Grayscale), saw $2.29 billion in net inflows last week.
Despite the bullish momentum, caution is
warranted. Bitcoin is heavily overbought, with the strongest pressure since
March 2024, which preceded a 30% correction lasting five months. A similar
pullback could occur when BTC reaches its $98,000-100,000 targets, potentially
retracing by 20-30% to $70,000-80,000 in December-January. However, such a
correction could set the stage for another major rally, with prices projected
to surge to $150,000-200,000 by early summer 2025. Investors should prepare for
potential volatility, but the long-term outlook remains robust.