Analytické recenze forexového trhu

23.12.2024 12:12

Weekly Focus: Extreme Banking by the Fed

The S&P 500 futures are down 0.2%, trading at 5945 points, after opening positively on Monday. This decline raises concerns about the index's ability to sustain an upside trajectory without a significant correction before year-end. Investors are eyeing the potential for a "Santa rally," a period typically spanning the last five trading days of December and the first two of January, which historically averages a 1.3% gain for the index. For the S&P 500 to align with this pattern, it would need to close above 6000 points on January 3.

20.12.2024 02:12

Weekly Summary: Fed Send U.S. Stocks Into Correction

Alexander Boltyan

The S&P 500 index has dropped by 3.3% to 5,838 points, marking its steepest decline since early September when recession fears gripped the markets. The Federal Reserve's latest monetary easing actions, involving a quarter-point interest rate cut to 4.50%, were overshadowed by hawkish commentary that rattled investors. The Fed raised inflation forecasts for 2024-2025 and reduced projected interest rate cuts in 2025 from four to two. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reinforced this cautious stance, emphasizing the need for further evidence of declining inflation and pushing U.S.

18.12.2024 12:12

Crypto Week: Trump Pump, Luxury Supports Crypto, While “Penguins” Are Sinking

Anton Bykov

Bitcoin (BTC) has risen by 1.0% to $103,940 this week, retreating from a new all-time high of $108,344 reached on Monday. The surge in BTC prices followed a meeting between U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and Crypto.com CEO Kris Marszalek at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence. While no details of the discussion were disclosed, Crypto.com dropped its lawsuit against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) the same day. Trump reiterated his intention to establish a U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve, a statement that became the focal point of market attention.

16.12.2024 12:12

Weekly Focus: U.S. Retail Sales, the Fed, GDP and PCE

Alexander Boltyan

S&P 500 broad market index futures are rising by 0.2% to 6060 points. Nobody want to take significant actions before the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting this Wednesday. Policymakers could easily surprise the market. Is chair Jerome Powell was much unpredicted recently. Thus, the benchmark is trading in a quite narrow range between 6030 and 6090 points during the last 11 days. Technical range for a breakthrough is even narrower at 6050-6070 points. A breakthrough to the upside would send the benchmark to 6150 points or even higher.

13.12.2024 10:12

Weekly Summary: Investors Switch to a Waiting Mode Ahead of the Fed Meeting

Anton Bykov

The S&P 500 broad market index is down 0.4% to 6063 points, marking a week without any new record highs as the benchmark remains below its peak of 6099 points. It appears unlikely that the index will climb higher before the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting next week. Investors have been closely monitoring U.S. inflation data, which offered limited guidance for market direction. While consumer prices rose as expected to 2.7% YoY from 2.6%, producer prices unexpectedly jumped to 3.0% YoY, surpassing the neutral forecast of 2.6%.

11.12.2024 01:12

Crypto Week: Formidable Willow, Microsoft and U.S. Crypto Reserves Dreams

Anton Bykov

Bitcoin (BTC) has declined by 2.0% this week to $97,990, retreating to the midpoint of its $90,000–100,000 trading range after recently surpassing the psychological $100,000 level. The pullback highlights growing investor uncertainty, exacerbated by profit-taking from long-term miners selling at elevated levels. This volatility reflects the market’s heightened sensitivity to negative developments. Alphabet’s announcement of its next-generation quantum computer, "Willow," intensified market jitters.

09.12.2024 12:12

Weekly Focus: U.S. Inflation and ECB Meeting

Anton Bykov

The S&P 500 index futures are trading flat at 6082 this week, following a sixth consecutive all-time high of 6099 points achieved last Friday. The U.S. labor market report for November presented a mixed picture. Nonfarm Payrolls surged to 227,000, surpassing the consensus of 202,000 and marking a significant jump from October’s upwardly revised 36,000 jobs. However, this positive development was countered by a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.2% from 4.1%. In response, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell to 4.

06.12.2024 12:12

Weekly Summary: Nonfarm Payrolls

Alexander Boltyan

The S&P 500 broad market index futures are up by 0.7% this week, trading at 6,075 points. The benchmark hit new all-time highs four times, peaking at 6,094 points, and the winning streak appears poised to continue. Investors are closely watching the U.S. labor market report for November, scheduled for release on Friday, which is expected to indicate moderate cooling. While the U.S. manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations in November, other business activity indicators fell short of Wall Street forecasts. The ISM Services PMI dropped to 53.7 points from 57.

04.12.2024 12:12

Crypto Week: U.S. Government Sells BTC, South Korean Political Fears, 20 Upside Attempts for BTC to pass $100K

Anton Bykov

Bitcoin (BTC) is down 1.1% to $96,670, maintaining its position within the $90,000-$100,000 trading range. The all-time high of $99,658 was set on November 22, and technical patterns indicate increasing potential for significant movement in either direction. Arkham Intelligence revealed that the U.S. government has transferred nearly $2 billion worth of Bitcoin—approximately 19,800 BTC seized from the Silk Road—to Coinbase, potentially signaling an imminent sell-off.

02.12.2024 12:12

Weekly Focus: Trump Threatens BRICS, S&P 500 Likely To Continue Up

Alexander Boltyan

S&P 500 broad market index futures are declining by 0.2% to 6025 points but remain above the key 6000-point barrier, suggesting a strong potential for continued upside. Pullbacks are viewed as minor and largely insignificant. The current dip in the index and the strengthening U.S. Dollar are linked to President-elect Donald Trump’s threats of imposing "100 percent tariffs" on a group of nine developing nations or so-called BRICS Group, potentially escalating into a trade war or serving as a negotiation tactic.