| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | Nationwide house price index | March | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | Nationwide house price index, y/y | March | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.9% |
| 07:55 | Germany | Manufacturing PMI | March | 46.5 | 48.3 | 48.3 |
| 08:00 | Eurozone | Manufacturing PMI | March | 47.6 | 48.7 | 48.6 |
| 08:30 | United Kingdom | Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing | March | 46.9 | 44.6 | 44.9 |
| 09:00 | Eurozone | Harmonized CPI, Y/Y | March | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.2% |
| 09:00 | Eurozone | Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y | March | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% |
| 09:00 | Eurozone | Harmonized CPI | March | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| 09:00 | Eurozone | Unemployment Rate | February | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% |
EUR fell against most of its major counterparts in the European session on Tuesday, as investors digested the euro area’s flash consumer price index (CPI) report while awaiting tomorrow’s announcement of U.S. reciprocal tariffs.
Eurostat reported that its preliminary estimates showed that CPI increased 2.2% YoY in March, following a 2.3% YoY gain in the previous month. This marked the lowest rate since November 2024 and was slightly below economists’ forecast of a 2.3% YoY advance. Meanwhile, the core CPI, which excludes prices for energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, surged 2.4% YoY, easing from a 2.6% YoY soar in February. This represented the weakest annual rise in underlying price pressures since January 2022. Economists had predicted the core inflation gauge to slow to 2.5% You in March.
Today’s cooler-than-anticipated Eurozone CPI data confirm a continuing disinflation process in the region, supporting the case for another cut in the European Central Bank’s key rates when its policymakers gather in just over two weeks.
According to Bloomberg, markets now see a 70% of another rate cut at the ECB’s April 17 meeting.
However, markets’ bets on the extent of an additional policy easing by the ECB this year could be recalibrated after the announcement of U.S. President Donald Trump’s broad-based tariffs on Wednesday.
The ECB’s President Christine Lagarde warned last week that the imposition of a 25% levy by the U.S. on the European Union's imports would reduce the region’s economic growth by about 0.3 percentage points in the first year, and make its inflation outlook significantly more uncertain.