| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 02:00 | China | Industrial Production y/y | February | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% |
| 02:00 | China | Retail Sales y/y | February | 3.7% | 4% | 4% |
| 02:00 | China | Fixed Asset Investment | February | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.1% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar consolidated against major currencies, remaining near a 5-month low, while market participants continue to monitor Donald Trump's trade policies.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) rose by 0.05% to 103.78. Last week, the index fell by 0.12%, recording the second weekly decline in a row and reaching the lowest level since October 16, 2024, as optimism that the Trump presidency will accelerate economic growth has been replaced by fears that his trade policy could trigger a recession. Meanwhile, Friday's data showed that the U.S. consumer sentiment index fell to 57.9 in March from 64.7 in February. This marked the lowest reading since November 2022 (56.8). Economists had anticipated the indicator would decrease to 63.1. According to the report, the index of current economic conditions fell to 63.5 in March (the lowest level in six months), while the index of consumer expectations plunged to 54.2 (the lowest level since July 2022 (47.3). The report also revealed that the estimates of year-ahead expected inflation jumped from 4.3% in February to 4.9%, the highest level since November 2022. At the same time, the 5-year expected inflation climbed from 3.5% to 3.9%, recording its largest m-o-m increase since 1993. Today, investors will focus on US retail sales data, which will be a serious test for the US dollar, given the deterioration in consumer confidence. Economists expect sales to have increased 0.7% m/m in February after falling 0.9% in January.
The Chinese yuan fell slightly against the US dollar, despite the fact that yesterday the government presented a "special action plan" to stimulate domestic consumption, including measures such as increasing household incomes and establishing a childcare subsidy scheme. Meanwhile, data showed that China's industrial output and retail sales grew more than expected in the first two months of 2025, driven by fiscal stimulus, though the property sector remained weak. Industrial production increased by 5.9% year-on-year, exceeding the 5.3% forecast but slowing from December's 6.2%. Retail sales rose 4.0%, up from December’s 3.7%, supported by holiday spending during the Lunar New Year. Fixed asset investment grew 4.1%, improving from 3.2% in 2024. However, property investment continued to decline, falling 9.8% year-on-year, though less than the 10.6% drop in 2024. Analysts suggest the ongoing correction in the property market will weigh on economic growth in the medium term. China maintained its 2025 growth target at "around 5%," though concerns persist over external risks, particularly U.S. trade tariffs. Despite recent gains, some economists warn the recovery may be short-lived due to structural challenges. Meanwhile, ANZ revised China’s 2025 growth forecast from 4.3% to 4.8%, citing positive economic momentum.