| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 00:30 | Australia | Unemployment rate | December | 3.9% | 4% | 4% |
| 00:30 | Australia | Changing the number of employed | December | 28.2 | 15 | 56.3 |
| 07:00 | Germany | CPI, m/m | December | -0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | Manufacturing Production (MoM) | November | -0.6% | 0% | -0.3% |
| 07:00 | Germany | CPI, y/y | December | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.6% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | Industrial Production (MoM) | November | -0.6% | 0.1% | -0.4% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | GDP m/m | November | -0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | GDP, y/y | November | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar consolidated against major currencies after falling yesterday, driven by weaker-than-expected US inflation data and lower Treasury yields.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) fell by 0.03% to 109.08. Yesterday, the index fell by 0.17%, as an unexpected slowdown in core inflation increased the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut this year. Markets now expect the Fed to cut rates by 40 basis points by the end of 2025, up from about 31 basis points before the release of inflation data. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 2.7% probability of a 0.25% rate cut in January (compared to 6.4% a week ago), while the probability of an additional rate cut in March is 27.3%. However, market attention remains focused on Donald Trump's impending return to the White House and his tariff plans. Investors are concerned that potential tariffs from the new US administration could increase price pressure and limit the Fed's ability to cut interest rates.
The yen rose 0.2% against the US dollar, continuing yesterday's rally (+0.94%) amid speculation that the Bank of Japan would tighten monetary policy at its January meeting. Recent statements by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda and his deputy, Rezo Himino, have made it clear that a rate hike will at least be discussed at next week's meeting, with markets seeing about a 78% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike.
The Australian dollar declined by 0.15% against the US dollar, while investors analyzed Australian labor market data. The Australian Bureau of Statistics said the unemployment rate rose in December to 4%, as expected, from 3.9% in November. The economy added 56,300 jobs last month, while economists expected an increase of 14,500 following the downward revised gain of 28,200 in November (originally 35,600 jobs). The participation rate was 67.1%, beating forecasts for 67.0% - which would have been unchanged.