| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 00:30 | Australia | CPI, y/y | November | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.3% |
| 07:00 | Germany | Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) | November | -1.5% | 0% | -5.4% |
| 07:00 | Germany | Retail sales, real adjusted | November | -0.4% | 0.5% | -0.6% |
| 07:00 | Germany | Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y | November | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.5% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar rose slightly against major currencies, continuing yesterday's increase and retreating from a one-week low, as yesterday's US statistics caused a sharp rise in bond yields and weakened the likelihood of easing the Fed's monetary policy.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) rose by 0.06% to 108.75. Yesterday, the index added 0.26% as data showed that job openings unexpectedly rose in November, layoffs were low, while services sector activity accelerated in December and a measure of prices paid for inputs hit a two-year high. Overall, the data is consistent with the Fed's forecast for a smaller reduction in interest rates this year. After their release, the markets revised their expectations regarding the Fed's policy - now they predict that the next rate cut will not occur until June at the earliest. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 4.8% probability of a 0.25% rate cut in January (compared to 9.6% a week ago), while the probability of an additional rate cut in March is 37.3%. Now investors' attention is shifting to the minutes of the December Fed meeting, ADP employment numbers and the nonfarm payrolls report, which will clarify the trajectory of the Fed's monetary policy this year.
The Australian dollar declined 0.1% against the US dollar on the back of Australian data, which showed that consumer price inflation accelerated in November largely due to the timing of electricity rebate. CPI rose to 2.3% from 2.1% in October. Inflation was slightly above economists' forecast of 2.2%. However, annual trimmed mean inflation eased to 3.2% from 3.5% in October. Experts said that with underlying price pressures showing clear signs of cooling, there is a growing risk that the RBA will cut rates sooner than May.