| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | Retail Sales (MoM) | November | -0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | Retail Sales (YoY) | November | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| 07:00 | Germany | Producer Price Index (MoM) | November | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| 07:00 | Germany | Producer Price Index (YoY) | November | -1.1% | -0.3% | 0.1% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar declined slightly against major currencies, but remains near a new 2-year high, continuing to receive support from the Fed's hawkish stance.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) fell by 0.14% to 108.26. However, since the beginning of the week the index has added 1.2% (the largest increase since early November), as the Federal Reserve has signaled fewer rate cuts next year. The Fed indicated that it probably would only lower twice more in 2025, according to the closely watched “dot plot” matrix. The two cuts indicated a slice in half the committee’s intentions when the plot was last updated in September. Today, investors' attention will be drawn to US inflation data, namely the PCE price index, which may provide additional clues about the prospects for the US economy. Consumer demand remained steady, while real personal spending continued this trend in October and increased by 0.1%. The fundamental prerequisites for further spending growth also remain: household incomes increased by 0.6% during the month, which was the fastest monthly increase in real disposable income since the beginning of the year. The significant increase in income was mainly due to a solid 0.5% increase in wages in October. In terms of wages and salaries, a noticeable increase was observed in the service sector - by 49.8 billion US dollars. The concentration of growth in the services sector poses a problem for the Fed, where high activity proved to be a serious obstacle in the last stage of inflation decline. Experts expect that in November, personal income and expenses again showed a steady increase - by 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively. Growth of 0.2% is also projected for both the PCE price index and the core PCE, which brings year-on-year growth to 2.5% and 2.9%, respectively.
The yen fell to a new 5-month low against the US dollar, but then strengthened and is now showing an increase of 0.4%. The yen's growth was driven by statements from top Japanese finance officials, who reported that the government is "alarmed" by recent foreign exchange moves and is ready to intervene if speculative moves were deemed excessive. However, the yen continues to be under pressure due to the reluctance of the Bank of Japan to tighten monetary policy. Meanwhile, today's data showed that Japan's core CPI, which excludes fresh food but includes fuel costs, rose by 2.7% per annum in November, surpassing market expectations of a 2.6% increase. This marks the highest core inflation rate in three months.