| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 07:00 | Germany | Retail sales, real adjusted | October | 1.6% | -0.3% | -1.5% |
| 07:00 | Germany | Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y | October | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| 07:45 | France | GDP, q/q | Quarter III | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 07:45 | France | GDP, Y/Y | Quarter III | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.2% |
| 07:45 | France | CPI, y/y | November | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.3% |
| 07:45 | France | CPI, m/m | November | 0.3% | 0.1% | -0.1% |
| 08:00 | Switzerland | Gross Domestic Product (YoY) | Quarter III | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2% |
| 08:00 | Switzerland | Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) | Quarter II | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar declined against major currencies, reaching its lowest level since November 12, while trading activity was low due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) fell by 0.23% to 105.90. Since the beginning of the week, the index has declined by 1.66%, retreating from its highest level since November 11 2022, reached last Friday. The pullback was caused by partial profit-taking after the recent rally due to Donald Trump's victory in the presidential election. Lower yields on U.S. Treasury bonds also put pressure on the dollar. However, the index continues to show an increase of 1.7% in November after a 3.2% jump last month.
The yen rose 0.9% against the US dollar, reaching a six-week high on the back of Japanese inflation data, which strengthened the arguments in favor of another tightening of monetary policy by the Central Bank in December. The Statistics Bureau of Japan said that in November consumer price inflation advanced to 2.6% per annum from 1.8% per annum in October. Core inflation that excludes fresh food climbed to 2.2% from 1.8%. Thus, consumer prices are gaining renewed momentum after the lull in the middle of the year. Economists said inflation is set to average 2.7% next year, which was up from the previous forecast of 2.0%. This would prompt the Bank of Japan to lift rates further towards neutral level and the policy rate will reach 1.25% by mid-2026. Traders currently lay about 57% odds for a 0.25% increase in December.
The euro rose 0.2% against the US dollar, while investors are preparing for the publication of eurozone inflation data (at 10:00 GMT). The November eurozone CPI report is a key release ahead of the next ECB meeting in mid-December. Inflation has been slowing for most of 2024, in part due to lower energy prices and slower price increases for non-energy manufactured goods. Inflation fell below the ECB's target in September and then rebounded to the 2% target in October. Core inflation trends have also slowed this year, but the slowdown has been less noticeable: core inflation was 2.7% year-on-year in October, and service sector inflation was 4.0%. In November, and mainly due to the underlying effects, the consensus forecast is to interrupt the improving overall inflationary trend. Inflation is expected to rise to 2.3% year-on-year, while core inflation accelerated to 2.8%. It will also not be a surprise if inflation in the service sector also rises. Given the deterioration in sentiment in recent months and the potential increase in US tariffs, which also indicates the risk of deterioration in economic growth prospects, it is unlikely that this will prevent further easing of ECB policy in December. In general, it is expected that an increase in inflation will lead to a more balanced reduction in the ECB interest rate in December - by 0.25%, instead of a more aggressive 0.5%.