| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | HICP, Y/Y | October | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.3% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y | October | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.3% |
| 07:00 | United Kingdom | HICP, m/m | October | 0% | 0.5% | 0.6% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar rose moderately against major currencies, rebounding from a one-week low, while investors are still waiting for Trump to name a Treasury Secretary. In addition, traders continue to pair back expectations for an interest-rate cut at the December Fed meeting.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) rose by 0.15% to 106.35. Experts said that the ‘Trump Trade’ that boosted the greenback is facing challenges from Trump's controversial cabinet nominations and the escalation in the Russian-Ukraine war, but for the dollar over longer term, more weight should be put on firm economic data and the increasing likelihood that the Fed may have to slow the rate cut path even more in 2025. Last week, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled a patient stance on lowering interest rates, given the strength of the US economy. Currently, market participants estimate a rate cut of only 77 basis points by late 2025, compared with more than 100 a few weeks ago. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 59.1% probability of a 0.25% rate cut in December (compared to 58.7% yesterday).
The pound rose 0.2% against the US dollar on the back of UK inflation data for October, which supports the view that the Bank of England will lower interest rates gradually in the coming months. In October consumer prices rose by 2.3% per year after an increase of 1.7% per year in September. As a result, inflation reached its highest level since April. Economists expected prices to rise by 2.2%. On a monthly basis, the consumer price index rose 0.6% (the strongest increase since March) after remaining unchanged in September. Consensus estimates suggested an increase of 0.5%. Meanwhile, core CPI - which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco - accelerated to 3.3% per annum from 3.2% per annum in September (the lowest value since September 2021). Consensus estimates suggested an increase by 3.1% per annum. The CPI services annual rate increased further (5.0% compared to 4.9% in September), while the CPI goods annual rate declined much slower (-0.3% compared to -1.4%). Stubborn services price growth has been in focus in recent months.