| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 00:30 | Australia | Trade Balance | September | 5.284 | 5.300 | 4.609 |
| 03:00 | China | Trade Balance, bln | October | 81.71 | 75.1 | 95.27 |
| 07:00 | Germany | Trade Balance (s.a.), bln | September | 22.5 | 20.9 | 17.0 |
| 07:00 | Germany | Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) | September | 2.6% | -1% | -2.5% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar declined moderately against major currencies after hitting its highest since July 3 yesterday on the back of Donald Trump's victory in the presidential election. The dollar's pullback was caused by partial profit-taking and correction of positions by investors ahead of the announcement of the results of the Fed meeting.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) fell by 0.25% to 104.82. Yesterday, the index jumped by 1.61%, recording the largest session increase since September 2022. As for the Fed meeting, market participants expect that the interest rate will be reduced by 25 basis points. However, investors will be watching for any hints on whether the Fed may abandon a rate cut in December. The much stronger-than-expected employment report for September forced investors to reconsider expectations about how many times the Fed is likely to cut rates. However, the extremely weak October report raised some doubts about this point of view. But recent hurricanes and strikes were partly responsible for the weak October report. Meanwhile, Trump's victory also intensified speculation that Fed might reduce rates at a slower and shallower pace, as his policies on restricting illegal immigration and enacting new tariffs could boost inflation. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 97.4% probability of a 0.25% rate cut at the November meeting (compared to 94.8% a week earlier) and a 66.9% probability of a 0.25% rate cut in December (compared to 75.1% a week earlier).
The pound rose 0.45% against the US dollar after yesterday's 1.25% drop. Today, investors will focus on the meeting of the Bank of England, which is likely to cut interest rates for the second time since 2020. However, uncertainty remains as to whether the Central Bank will signal follow-up actions after the government passes a budget that increases inflation.
The Chinese yuan rose 0.2% against the US dollar, helped by favorable Chinese data. The General Administration of Customs said China's exports grew at the fastest pace in over two years in October as factories rushed inventory to major markets in anticipation of further tariffs from the U.S. and the European Union. Exports grew 12.7% per annum, following an increase of 2.4% in September. Experts expected growth of only 5%. On the other hand, imports dropped 2.3% per annum after a 0.3% rise in the previous month. Consensus estimates suggested a decrease of 1.5%. As a result, the trade surplus surged to $95.7 billion from $81.7 billion and remained well above economists' forecast of $73.5 billion.