| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 07:00 | Germany | Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) | September | -5.4% | 1.5% | 4.2% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar jumped by more than 1.5% against major currencies, and is preparing to record the largest session increase since March 2020 on the background of Donald Trump's almost guaranteed victory in the presidential election.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) rose by 1.63% to 105.11, reaching its highest level since July 4. Donald Trump led Kamala Harris by 267 electoral votes to 224, after Trump took the key battleground state of Georgia. 270 electoral votes are needed to win the presidency. The growth of the US dollar began after very early indications of a Republican win in Georgia and gathered pace throughout the day. Republicans won control of the Senate, and made gains in the House of Representatives as the party battled to retain control there. Analysts believe that Trump's policy on immigration, tax cuts and tariffs will increase inflationary pressure, as well as cause a rise in the US dollar and US Treasury bond yields. In addition, Trump's victory may also slow down the pace of monetary policy easing by the Fed. Meanwhile, trade-related currencies are likely to feel the brunt of Trump's policies as markets prepare for a more volatile geopolitical environment and a renewed trade war with China. The next event that may affect the US dollar will be the Fed meeting, the results of which will be announced tomorrow. Economists expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points. However, investors will be watching for any hints on whether the Fed may abandon a rate cut in December. The much stronger-than-expected employment report for September forced investors to reconsider expectations about how many times the Fed is likely to cut rates. However, the extremely weak October report raised some doubts about this point of view. But recent hurricanes and strikes were partly responsible for the weak October report. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 99,6% probability of a 0.25% rate cut at the November meeting (compared to 95.2% a week earlier) and a 69.8% probability of a 0.25% rate cut in December (compared to 72.2% a week earlier).