| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 00:01 | U.S. | Presidential Election | | | | |
| 01:45 | China | Markit/Caixin Services PMI | October | 50.3 | 50.5 | 52.0 |
| 03:30 | Australia | Announcement of the RBA decision on the discount rate | | 4.35% | 4.35% | 4.35% |
| 07:45 | France | Industrial Production, m/m | September | 1.1% | -0.7% | -0.9% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar fell slightly against major currencies, extending yesterday's decline as Donald Trump's chances of winning the presidential election weakened.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) fell by 0.08% to 103.80. Yesterday, the index fell by almost 0.4%, and reached a 2-week low after a weekend opinion poll showed Kamala Harris with a surprise lead in Iowa, a traditional Republican stronghold. Overall, polls continue to show a tight race. Analysts believe that Trump's policy on immigration, tax cuts and tariffs will increase inflationary pressure, as well as cause a rise in the US dollar and US Treasury bond yields, while Harris was seen as the continuity candidate. In addition, Trump's victory may also slow down the pace of monetary policy easing by the Fed. According to forecasts by experts at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the US dollar could fall by 1-2% this week if Kamala Harris wins, and rise significantly if Donald Trump wins, while any delays and/or disputes over the counting of votes could increase the volatility of the US dollar this week. Overall, the winner may not be known for days after Tuesday's vote. In addition to the elections, the focus this week will also be on the Fed meeting, at which a 0.25% rate cut is expected. But investors will be focused on any signs that the Fed may skip a rate cut in December, given the latest weak U.S. labor market data.
The Australian dollar rose 0.4% against the US dollar on the back of the results of the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting. The central bank left the interest rate at 4.35%, as expected, but reiterated that "monetary policy should be quite restrictive until the Central Bank is confident that inflation is steadily approaching the target range." Meanwhile, RBA Governor Michelle Bullock warned that there are still risks of higher inflation. Traders have not fully priced in a quarter-point rate cut until the May meeting.