| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 00:30 | Australia | Retail Sales, M/M | September | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 01:30 | China | Non-Manufacturing PMI | October | 50.0 | 50.4 | 50.2 |
| 01:30 | China | Manufacturing PMI | October | 49.8 | 49.9 | 50.1 |
| 03:00 | Japan | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0.25% |
| 07:00 | Germany | Retail sales, real adjusted | September | 1.2% | -0.5% | 1.2% |
| 07:45 | France | CPI, y/y | October | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% |
| 07:45 | France | CPI, m/m | October | -1.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar consolidated against major currencies, while investors prepared for the publication of key data on inflation and the US labor market, as well as being cautious ahead of the US presidential election, which will be held on November 5.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) rose by 0.01% to 104.01. As for the data, the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for September will be released later today, and tomorrow the closely-watched nonfarm payrolls report will be published. The strength of US consumers has so far supported expectations of a “soft landing" of the economy. A revision of the data in the August report showed that consumers felt better and were not as stressed as previously thought. Real consumer spending has been high throughout the year, but in the August report, the figures were revised even higher for each month since the beginning of 2024. The steady pace of spending has been supported by solid income growth, with revised income growth now outpacing spending. Overall, as a result of the August changes, the personal savings rate rose to almost 5%, whereas previously it was below 3%. Thus, the consumer is in a stronger position, especially given that households have not increased spending through savings to the extent indicated by previous data. According to forecasts, personal income rose by 0.3% in September after an increase of 0.2% in August, and the growth of personal spending accelerated from 0.2% to 0.4%.
The yen rose 0.6% against the US dollar, helped by the results of the Bank of Japan meeting and statements by Central Bank Governor Kazuo Ueda. The Bank of Japan left the interest rate at 0.25%, confirming economists' forecasts. The Bank pointed to the need for a thorough study of global economic developments, stressing that when deciding on the next policy tightening, it will pay special attention to the risks to the country's economic recovery. Traders were concerned that the Bank of Japan might delay raising rates after the recent Japanese elections, but there was no such message in the central bank's statement, which strengthened the yen. "As for the timing of the next rate hike, we do not have a predetermined idea. We will carefully examine the data available at the time of each meeting and update our view of the economy and prospects when making policy decisions. If we see a wage increase at about the same level as this year, it will be a positive event for us. But by itself, this will not directly lead to an increase in rates. Recent political events alone will also not have a direct impact on our price forecasts. But if there are big policy changes, we will revise our forecasts as necessary, taking into account the impact of such steps," Kazuo Ueda said.