Preliminary data published by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) showed that in the 3rd quarter, GDP increased by 0.2% after declining by 0.3% in the 2nd quarter (revised from -0.1%). Economists had expected the economy to shrink by 0.1%. Thus, Europe's largest economy avoided recession. After price and calendar adjustment, however, GDP showed a decrease of 0.2% as there was one working day more than in the same period a year earlier.
Destatis said that compared with the previous quarter, government and household final consumption expenditure increased in the third quarter of 2024. Detailed GDP results for the third quarter of 2024 will be released on November 22.
In annual terms, GDP fell by 0.2% in the 3rd quarter after declining by 0.3% in the 2nd quarter (revised from 0%). Consensus estimates assumed that GDP will decrease by 0.3%.
Earlier this month, Germany's Bundesbank said it forecast stagnation in the fourth quarter. For 2024 as a whole, the government expects output to contract by 0.2%, which would mark a second year of decline. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund revised its forecast for Germany's GDP for the current year to 0% from +0.2%. For 2025, the IMF forecast Germany's economy would grow by 0.8%.