The survey results published by GfK Group and the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM) showed that the forecast consumer sentiment index for November rose to -18.3 points from -21.0 points in October (revised from -21.2 points). The latest reading was the highest since April 2022. Economists had expected an increase to -20.5 points.
"Consumer confidence continues to improve, and has reached its highest level since April 2022 (-15.7 points). However, the level of consumer confidence remains very low. The uncertainty caused by crises, wars and rising prices is still very strong and does not allow the factors stimulating consumption, for example, the growth of real incomes, to fully manifest themselves. Reports of a growing number of company bankruptcies and plans to cut jobs or move production abroad are also hindering a more significant recovery in consumer sentiment," said Rolf Bürkl, consumer expert at NIM.
GfK said that in October, the willingness to save component fell by 4.8 points, which supported recovery in the consumer climate. Meanwhile, the income expectations component increased by 3.6 points to 13.7 points. Falling inflation rates and significantly rising wages and salaries are currently causing real income growth to rise significantly. Pensioners are also currently experiencing a real increase in income. The willingness to buy component rose by 2.2 points to -4.7 points (the highest value since March 2022). The willingness to buy is therefore currently showing a slight upward trend. However, the level is still very low. Meanwhile, the economic expectations indicator fell by 0.5 points, to 0.5 points. A lower value was last measured in March 2024 with -3.1 points. The German government has also revised its forecast for economic growth downwards this year. GDP is now expected to fall by 0.2%.