| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 00:30 | Australia | Westpac Consumer Confidence | September | 2.8% | -1.2% | -0.5% |
| 03:00 | China | Trade Balance, bln | August | 84.65 | 83.90 | 91.02 |
| 06:00 | Germany | CPI, m/m | August | 0.3% | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | Average Earnings, 3m/y | July | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.0% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | Claimant count | August | 102.3 | 95.5 | 23.7 |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | ILO Unemployment Rate | July | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar rose slightly against major currencies, continuing yesterday's increase and reaching its highest level since September 4, while market participants await US inflation data that could influence the size of the rate cut.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) rose by 0.07% to 101.63. Yesterday, the index added 0.44%. After a mixed labor report on Friday failed to clarify the extent of the Fed's monetary easing at its September meeting, investors' attention turned to the CPI report for August, which will be presented on Wednesday. According to forecasts, the overall CPI increased by 0.2% on a monthly basis, which will lead to a decrease in the annual rate to 2.6% (the lowest value since March 2021). A significant drop in gasoline prices indicates a direct decrease in the cost of energy, while food inflation seems to have barely changed. Excluding food and energy, the core CPI likely rose 0.25% in August, which would be the largest increase in four months and keep the annual rate at 3.2%. Overall, August will give an idea of how much the prices of goods may still fall, and whether services, in particular housing, will be able to continue the fight against inflation. A weaker-than-expected report could bolster market expectations of a 0,5% cut, but a steady reading may leave the 0,25% versus 0,5% debate unresolved. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 27% probability of a 0.5% rate cut in September (down from 38% the week before), and a 73% probability of a 0.25% rate cut (up from 62% the week before), with a 1,13% rate cut expected by the end of the year.
The Chinese yuan fell 0.1% against the US dollar, while the currency was supported by trade balance data. The Customs General Administration of China said exports grew more than expected in August, while imports growth weakened sharply amid weak domestic demand. Exports grew by 8.7% per annum, faster than the 7% increase in July. This was the fastest expansion in 17 months. Economists had forecast shipments to climb 6.5%. At the same time, imports grew only 0.5% after rising 7.2% in July. Economists had expected an increase of 2%. The trade surplus totaled $91.02 billion compared to $84.65 billion in July. This was well above consensus of $83.90 billion.