Reuters reported that its latest poll of 101 economists revealed that 55 of them, or 54.5%, expect the Federal Reserve to lower its interest rates by 25 basis points three times this year. This implies the Fed will act at each of the remaining three meetings of 2024 - on September 17-18, November 6-7, and December 17-18. In July, only two 25-basis-point reductions were predicted.
Meanwhile, other 34 economists, or 33.7% of all polled, see two rate decreases this year, one economist anticipates only one reduction, while 11, or 10.9%, forecast four or more moves.
The poll also found that the U.S. economic growth is now expected to average 2.5% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025, and the median probability of recession in 2 years is now estimated at 30%