According to the report from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), from April to June, the unemployment rate (for those aged 16 years and over) fell to 4.2% from 4.4% (the highest value since September 2021) in the previous three month period. Economists had expected an increase to 4.5%. The economic inactivity rate was 22.2% in April to June, above estimates of a year ago, but largely unchanged in the latest quarter.
The ONS said that in June, payrolled employees increased by 14,000 (0.0%) compared to May, and rose by 227,000 (+0.8%) year-on-year. The claimant count increased in July by 135,000 on the month, to 1.801 million. Economists had expected an increase of 14,500. Commencing in May, the Department for Work and Pensions are rolling out an increase in the administrative earnings threshold for full work search conditionality. This change is likely to affect around 180,000 claimants over a period of around 6 months, increasing the claimant count over that time. Meanwhile, in May to July, the estimated number of vacancies decreased by 26,000 q/q, to 884,000. Vacancies decreased on the quarter for the 25th consecutive period but are still above pre-coronavirus pandemic levels.
The data also showed that from April to June, the growth in average total pay (including bonuses) and regular pay (excluding bonuses) was 4.5% per annum (+5.7% in the previous three months) and 5.4% per annum (+5.8% in the previous three months). Economists expected an increase by 4.6%. Adjusted for inflation, wage growth in real terms was 1.6% for total pay and 2.4% for regular pay.