| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 06:00 | Germany | Trade Balance (s.a.), bln | June | 25.3 | 23.5 | 20.4 |
| 06:00 | Germany | Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) | June | -3.1% | 1.0% | 1.4% |
USD rose against most of its major counterparts in the European session on Wednesday, as risk sentiments improved.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), measuring the U.S. currency's value relative to a basket of foreign currencies, increased 0.20% from the previous close to 103.17.
Markets’ assessment of recession risk increased sharply last Friday when the U.S. July labour market data came in weaker than anticipated, triggering a revision of expectations of the Federal Reserve’s policy moves.
According to CME FedWatch, markets now price in a 36.5% probability of a quarter-point interest rate cut at the U.S. central bank’s meeting next month and a 63.5% chance of a bigger - half-point - reduction. A week ago, a 25-basis-point rate decrease was seen as the most likely move for the Fed’s September meeting (88.1%). Overall, the Fed is expected to lower its rates to at least 4.25%-4.50% by the end of the year from the current 5.25%-5.50%.
Markets’ Fed rate bets are likely to face another test next Wednesday when the U.S. July CPI numbers are scheduled to come.