| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 01:30 | China | Manufacturing PMI | July | 49.5 | 49.3 | 49.4 |
| 01:30 | China | Non-Manufacturing PMI | July | 50.5 | 50.2 | 50.2 |
| 01:30 | Australia | CPI, y/y | June | 4% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| 01:30 | Australia | CPI, q/q | Quarter II | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 03:00 | Japan | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.25% |
| 06:45 | France | CPI, m/m | July | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar declined slightly against major currencies, while investors are awaiting the announcement of the results of the July Fed meeting.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) fell by 0.14% to 104.41. As for the Fed meeting, market participants expect the Central Bank to maintain the status quo, but It will lay the groundwork for a rate cut in September. Investors will be closely watching for any hints from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell about when policymakers intend to begin easing monetary policy. But experts warn that the lack of a clear signal from the Fed about a rate cut in September could lead to a rise in the US dollar and US Treasury bond yields. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 100% probability of a rate cut in September, and a 100% probability of monetary policy easing in November, with about 68 basis points worth of cuts priced in for the rest of the year.
The yen swung between gains and losses against the US dollar. The yen's fluctuations were triggered by the decision of the Bank of Japan, which unexpectedly raised the interest rate by 0.15%, to 0.25%, and presented a detailed plan to reduce its huge bond purchase program. Economists had expected the rate to remain at 0.1%. The Central bank has decided to reduce the volume of monthly direct purchases of government bonds to about 3 trillion yen by the first quarter of 2026, compared with around 6 trillion yen previously. The Bank of Japan has also published updated economic forecasts. The Central Bank now expects inflation to be 2.5% in fiscal year 2024 (-0.3% compared to the previous forecast presented in April). Policymakers said that the revision of the forecast was caused by measures taken by the government to reduce energy prices. Meanwhile, the inflation forecast for the 2025 fiscal year was raised by 0.2% to 2.1%, while the forecast for the 2026 fiscal year remained unchanged (1.9%). The Bank of Japan also said it forecasts GDP growth of 0.6% in fiscal year 2024 (-0.2% compared to the previous forecast). Meanwhile, economic growth forecasts for fiscal years 2025 and 2026 were maintained at 1.0%.
The Australian dollar fell 0.5% against the US dollar, reaching its lowest level since May 1 after core inflation surprised on the downside and greatly reduced the risk of another rate hike. The Reserve Bank of Australia's trimmed mean CPI rose 0.8% on quarter and 3.9% on year, while the weighted median CPI added 0.8% on quarter and 4.1% on year. Economists had expected the trimmed mean CPI to increase by 0.9% on quarter and 4% on year, and the weighted median CPI to grow by 1% on quarter and 4.3% on year.