The price of gold declined by another 0.15% after falling by 0.77% yesterday. Pressure on prices is exerted by the correction of positions by investors ahead of the publication of US statistical data, which will help clarify the current state of the economy and may affect further actions by the Fed.
This week, investors will focus on the PMI indices for July, GDP data for the 2nd quarter, as well as the June report on personal income and spending. According to forecasts, GDP growth accelerated to 2% QoQ in the 2nd quarter from 1.4% QoQ in the 1st quarter. Meanwhile, consensus estimates suggest that personal income rose by 0.4% after an increase of 0.5% in May, and personal expenses increased by 0.3% after an increase of 0.2%. Economists also forecast that the core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, rose 0.2% m/m after an increase of 0.1% in May. If the growth of this indicator exceeds forecasts, the probability of easing the Fed's monetary policy in September is likely to decrease. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 94.2% probability of a rate cut in September, and a 97.3% probability of monetary policy easing in November. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.
Investors also continue to monitor the political situation in the United States. U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris is building Democratic backing for her sudden presidential run after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race.