The latest Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) showed that respondents' expectations for headline inflation, as measured in terms of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), remained unchanged for the current and next year, but were revised downward for 2026. Meanwhile, the expected profile of the unemployment rate was revised down over the period 2024 to 2026. The SPF for the third quarter of 2024 was conducted between 2 and 5 July 2024 and 56 responses were received.
Headline HICP inflation expectations unchanged for 2024 and 2025, at 2.4% and 2.0% respectively, and revised marginally downwards for 2026 to 1.9% from 2%.
Expectations for core HICP inflation, which excludes energy and food, were revised upward slightly for 2024 (up 2.7% from 2.6%) and 2025 (up 2.2% from 2.1%), reflecting data outturn and more persistent than expected services inflation and labor cost growth.
Expectations for core HICP inflation for 2026 remained at 2%.
Longer-term expectations for headline and core HICP inflation were unchanged at 2.0%.
Respondents expected real GDP growth of 0.7% in 2024, 1.3% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026. The expectations for 2024 and 2025 were revised up by 0.2% and down by 0.1% respectively, while those for 2026 were unchanged.
The upward revision for 2024 largely reflects a stronger than expected outcome for the first quarter of 2024, with the profile thereafter largely unchanged.
Longer-term growth expectations remained unchanged at 1.3%.
Respondents continued to expect the unemployment rate to be 6.5% in 2024 and 2025 (by -0.1% compared with the previous survey round), but to decline in 2026, to 6.4% (-0.1% compared to the previous survey), and then to remain at 6.4% in the longer term (unchanged by compared to the previous survey).