| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | HICP, Y/Y | June | 2% | 1.9% | 2% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y | June | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | HICP, m/m | June | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar declined slightly against major currencies, while market participants continue to focus on the prospect of easing the Fed's monetary policy.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) fell by 0.10% to 104.16. Yesterday, the index was almost unchanged, as retail sales data exceeded forecasts, but was not strong enough to change expectations about the dynamics of the Fed's interest rates. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 6.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed meeting in July, a 100% probability of a rate cut in September, and a 100% probability of monetary policy easing in November. Today, investors' attention will be focused on data on the housing market (building permits and housing starts) and a report on industrial production, which will help clarify the current state of the US economy. Economists expect that in June, building permits fell to 1.39 million from 1.399 million in May, housing starts rose to 1.31 million from 1.277 million, and industrial production increased by 0.3% m/m.
The pound rose 0.2% against the US dollar, supported by UK inflation data. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that in June consumer prices rose by 2.0% per year after a similar increase in May. The latest reading was the lowest since July 2021.However, economists had expected inflation to fall to 1.9% per annum. Meanwhile, core CPI - which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco - rose by 3.5% per annum (the lowest rate since October 2021) after an increase by 3.5% in May. Consensus estimates also suggested an increase by 3.5% per annum. On a monthly basis, core consumer prices rose by 0.2%, compared with the 0.5% increase in May and the market estimate of a 0.1% increase. The data also showed that on a monthly basis, the consumer price index increased by 0.1%, slowing down from May (+0.3%) and confirming economists' forecasts.
The yen rose 0.3% against the US dollar, while traders remained on alert for any intervention from Japanese authorities to prop up the currency after they had likely done so last week.