Goldman Sachs economists said that given the sharper-than-expected slowdown in China's economic growth in the second quarter, they decided to lower their forecast for GDP growth for 2024 by 0.1%, to 4.9%.
"To counteract weak domestic demand, further monetary policy easing will be required before the end of this year, especially in the budget and housing sectors," the economists said.
Meanwhile, Oxford Economics economists now forecast China's GDP growth of 4.8% in 2024, which is 0.4% higher than the last forecast presented in December 2023. However, experts warned that "according to our estimates, discretionary retail spending has fallen at the sharpest pace since the quarantine in Shanghai in April 2022."
The latest IMF forecasts, presented at the end of May, suggest China's economy will grow by 5% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025. The IMF warned that growth in China would slow to 3.3% by 2029 due to an aging population and slower expansion in productivity.