| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 01:30 | Australia | Trade Balance | May | 6.027 | 6.678 | 5.773 |
| 06:00 | Germany | Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) | May | -0.6% | 0.6% | -1.6% |
| 06:30 | Switzerland | Consumer Price Index (MoM) | June | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar fell slightly against major currencies, continuing yesterday's decline caused by weak US data and the minutes of the June Fed meeting. Meanwhile, experts warn that market liquidity is likely to be low today due to the national holiday in the US.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) fell by 0.08% to 105.32. Yesterday, the index fell by 0.4% after the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) reported that activity in the US services sector unexpectedly contracted in June. The ISM non-manufacturing index fell to 48.8 (the lowest value since May 2020) from 53.8 in May. Economists predicted that the index would drop to 52.5. Meanwhile, minutes of the Fed's June meeting acknowledged the U.S. economy appeared to be slowing and "price pressures were diminishing." In general, the latest data indicating the continued weakening of US labor market conditions and the loss of momentum by the economy at the end of the second quarter justify the markets' bets that the Fed may begin easing monetary policy this year. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 8.8% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed meeting in July, a 72.6% probability of a rate cut in September, and a 82.9% probability of monetary policy easing in November.
The yen rose 0.2% against the US dollar, but remained near a new 38-year low, reached yesterday. Experts said that given the recent large-scale fall in the yen, the Japanese government may intervene later today. Tokyo's previous two rounds of yen buying occurred during illiquid points in the global trading day or holiday thinned trading.
The pound rose 0.1% against the US dollar, while investors are preparing for the elections in the UK. According to polls, Britain looks set to elect Labour Party leader Keir Starmer as its next prime minister, sweeping Rishi Sunak's Conservatives out of office.