| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 08:00 | Germany | IFO - Business Climate | June | 89.3 | 89.7 | 88.6 |
| 08:00 | Germany | IFO - Current Assessment | June | 88.3 | 88.4 | 88.3 |
| 08:00 | Germany | IFO - Expectations | June | 90.4 | 91 | 89.0 |
USD slipped against other major currencies in the European session on Monday as investors prepared for several crucial events later this week, specifically the first debate between U.S. president Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump and the release of the Federal Reserve’s favoured inflation gauge, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), measuring the U.S. currency's value relative to a basket of foreign currencies, dropped 0.24% from the previous close to 105.54.
Biden and challenger Trump will participate in the first of two U.S. presidential debates on Thursday evening. Expectations are for a lot of interruptions and badgering from both candidates.
This event will be followed by the release of the Fed’s favoured inflation measure for May - the core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, to edge up 0.1% MoM after a 0.2% MoM advance in April. This would mark the weakest monthly increase since November 2023. On an annual basis, the measure is expected to surge 2.6%, the least since March 2021 (+2.3% YoY).
If the actual data justify expectations this will reinforce the bets for a September rate cut by the U.S. central bank.
Other important events of the week will be the Conference Board’s report on the U.S. consumer confidence, statistics on the housing market, durable goods orders, wholesale inventories, and jobless claims, as well as speeches from several Fed officials, including Lisa Cook, Michelle Bowman, Thomas Barkin, and release of the Fed's annual bank stress test results.