| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 02:00 | China | Industrial Production y/y | May | 6.7% | 6% | 5.6% |
| 02:00 | China | Retail Sales y/y | May | 2.3% | 3% | 3.7% |
| 02:00 | China | Fixed Asset Investment | May | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar rose slightly against major currencies, while market participants are preparing for the publication of new US data that will help clarify the state of the economy.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) rose by 0.07% to 105.61. Last week, the index rose by 0.63%, despite increased expectations of monetary easing by the Fed in September. Meanwhile, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said yesterday that it is "reasonable to expect" the Fed will cut interest rates once this year, in December. Last week, updated Fed forecasts showed that on average policymakers expect one Fed rate cut this year. This week, investors will focus on US data on retail sales and PMI indices, which may cause a reassessment of the prospects for monetary policy. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 10.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed meeting in July, a 65.9% probability of a rate cut in September, and a 79.7% probability of monetary policy easing in November.
The euro consolidated against the US dollar, remaining near its lowest level since May 1 amid political turmoil in Europe. Polls show that far right and leftist parties gain momentum ahead of France's surprise parliamentary election, pressing President Macron's administration.
The pound fell 0.1% against the US dollar, while investors are cautious ahead of the Bank of England meeting. Economists expect the Bank of England to leave the interest rate at 5.25% this week. But market participants will be closely monitoring any "dovish" forecasts that may indicate a potential start of monetary policy easing in the coming months. While the latest economic data will likely cause the Bank of England to hold off on rate changes this week, economists expect the central bank to cut rates by 0.25% at its August meeting.