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  • International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its oil demand forecast for 2024
Ekonomické zprávy
12.06.2024

International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its oil demand forecast for 2024

  • World oil demand growth continues to slow, with 2024 gains now seen at 960 kb/d, 100 kb/d below last month’s forecast.

  • Weak OECD deliveries pushed global demand into a narrow y-o-y contraction in March.

  • Global oil supply rose by 520 kb/d in May to 102.5 mb/d, as Brazilian ethanol output surged seasonally.

  • For the year as a whole, production increases by 690 kb/d, led by non-OPEC+ gains of 1.4 mb/d.

  • OPEC+ supply falls by 740 kb/d if voluntary cuts are maintained.

  • In 2025, global supply is forecast to rise by 1.8 mb/d, as non-OPEC+ output increases by 1.5 mb/d.

  • Refining margins in Asia retreated to three-year lows in May and are now close to run cut territory.

  • US Gulf Coast refining profitability slipped back to six-month lows but remains above European levels.

  • 2024 and 2025 crude runs forecasts are 100 kb/d higher than last month’s Report, at 83.5 mb/d and 84.2 mb/d, respectively.

  • Global observed oil inventories built by 19.3 mb in April.

  • On land stocks surged by 83.5 mb after eight-months of draws, while oil on water plunged by 64.2 mb following 112.6 mb of increases in the previous two months.

  • OECD industry stocks rose by 32.1 mb, its first monthly increase since October.

  • Preliminary data suggest a further 48.2 mb build in May.

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