International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its oil demand forecast for 2024

World oil demand growth continues to slow, with 2024 gains now seen at 960 kb/d, 100 kb/d below last month’s forecast.

Weak OECD deliveries pushed global demand into a narrow y-o-y contraction in March.

Global oil supply rose by 520 kb/d in May to 102.5 mb/d, as Brazilian ethanol output surged seasonally.

For the year as a whole, production increases by 690 kb/d, led by non-OPEC+ gains of 1.4 mb/d.

OPEC+ supply falls by 740 kb/d if voluntary cuts are maintained.

In 2025, global supply is forecast to rise by 1.8 mb/d, as non-OPEC+ output increases by 1.5 mb/d.

Refining margins in Asia retreated to three-year lows in May and are now close to run cut territory.

US Gulf Coast refining profitability slipped back to six-month lows but remains above European levels.

2024 and 2025 crude runs forecasts are 100 kb/d higher than last month’s Report, at 83.5 mb/d and 84.2 mb/d, respectively.

Global observed oil inventories built by 19.3 mb in April.

On land stocks surged by 83.5 mb after eight-months of draws, while oil on water plunged by 64.2 mb following 112.6 mb of increases in the previous two months.

OECD industry stocks rose by 32.1 mb, its first monthly increase since October.

Preliminary data suggest a further 48.2 mb build in May.