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06.06.2024

European session review: EUR little changed ahead of today’s ECB rate decision

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
06:00GermanyFactory Orders s.a. (MoM)April-0.8%0.3%-0.2%
08:30United KingdomPMI ConstructionMay53.052.354.7
09:00EurozoneRetail Sales (MoM)April0.7%-0.3%-0.5%


EUR traded flat and mixed against other major currencies in the European session on Thursday as investors prepared for the announcement of the outcomes of the European Central Bank’s policy meeting later in the day.

The single European currency edged higher versus USD, JPY, GBP, AUD and CAD but slipped versus CHF and SEK.

While the ECB is widely anticipated to deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut when it announces the results of its June meeting at 12:15 GMT, markets will look for signals about the future path of its interest rates.  

Markets are now expecting 63 basis points of rate reductions from the ECB this year, according to Reuters. This implies two 25-basis-point rate decreases (with today’s potential cut included) and a 52% probability of the third move. 

It should be noted that the ECB’s policy update will follow yesterday's decision by the Bank of Canada to lower rates by 25 basis points amid continued evidence that underlying inflation is easing.

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