| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | Retail Sales (MoM) | April | -0.2% | -0.4% | -2.3% |
| 06:00 | United Kingdom | Retail Sales (YoY) | April | 0.4% | -0.2% | -2.7% |
| 06:00 | Germany | GDP (QoQ) | Quarter I | -0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 06:00 | Germany | GDP (YoY) | Quarter I | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.2% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar consolidated against major currencies after yesterday reaching its highest level since April 14 amid a decrease in the likelihood of easing the Fed's monetary policy.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) fell by 0.05% to 105.06, but has gained 0.5% since the beginning of the week. Yesterday, the index rose by 0.12%, as PMI data indicated that the growth of business activity in the US private sector accelerated to the highest level since April 2022, while manufacturers reported surging input prices, prompting a pullback in U.S. interest rate cut expectations. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 0% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed meeting in June, a 14.3% probability of a rate cut in July, and a 53.2% probability of monetary policy easing in September. Later in the day traders will have an eye on U.S. durable goods orders, Reuters/Michigan consumer sentiment index and speeches from Fed policymakers - notably Fed Governor Christopher Waller on longer-term rates.
The yen declined by 0.1% against the US dollar, breaking the psychological level of 157.00. Since the beginning of the week, the yen has fallen by about 0.9%. Meanwhile, the data presented today showed that core inflation in Japan slowed for the second month in a row in April due to more moderate food inflation, while remaining above the central bank's 2% target. The core CPI, which does not include fresh food, rose 2.2% per annum, as expected, after an increase of 2.6% per annum in March. Meanwhile, the "core core" index, which excludes both fresh food and energy costs and is closely watched by the Bank of Japan as a key gauge of broader inflation trends, rose 2.4% after increasing 2.9% in March. Inflation data is seen as key to making further decisions on monetary policy tightening by the Bank of Japan, which wants to raise interest rates, albeit gradually.