The results of a survey of 31 economists showed that China's exports probably increased by 1.5% per annum in April after a 7.5% decline in March, which was due to weak foreign demand and lower selling prices amid excess production capacity. If the forecast is confirmed, this will be the fifth increase in exports in the last six months. As for imports, consensus estimates suggest an increase of 4.9% per annum, which offsets the March decrease (-1.9% per annum). In the first quarter, both imports and exports rose 1.5% year-on-year. Meanwhile, the trade surplus, according to the average forecasts of economists, increased to $77.5 billion from $58.55 billion in March. The trade balance report will be published tomorrow at 03:00 GMT.
Overall, the latest data on China's economy showed that momentum could be faltering again, while a projected property crisis is showing few signs of abating, spurring calls for more policy stimulus. And since the Fed and other developed countries are not showing urgency in reducing borrowing costs, Chinese manufacturers may face further difficulties in competing for market share.