| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 04:30 | Australia | Announcement of the RBA decision on the discount rate | | 4.35% | 4.35% | 4.35% |
| 06:00 | Germany | Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) | March | -0.8% | -0.1% | -0.4% |
| 06:00 | Germany | Trade Balance (s.a.), bln | March | 21.4 | 22.4 | 22.3 |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar rose moderately against major currencies, retreating from the 4-week low reached on Friday.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) rose by 0.18% to 105.25, while market participants continue to look for clues about the timing of the Fed's monetary policy easing. Yesterday Fed Bank of New York President John Williams said that at some undefined point the U.S. central bank will lower its interest rate target. He did not offer a time table for action but said the economy was overall moving back into better balance. Markets are now pricing in 50 basis points of cuts this year, with a rate cut in November fully priced in. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 8.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed meeting in June, a 31.4% probability of a rate cut in July, and a 67.1% probability of monetary policy easing in September.
The yen fell 0.3% against the US dollar, despite new warnings from Japanese officials after two rounds of alleged interventions last week. Japan's finance ministry has refrained from commenting on the interventions, but senior foreign exchange diplomat Masato Kanda reiterated today that the government "will continue to take the same firm approach" to the erratic fluctuations of the yen. However, he also acknowledged that an orderly market would not require government intervention, which some analysts took as a signal to reduce the risks of intervention.
The Australian dollar fell by 0.5% against the US dollar on the back of the results of the meeting of the Central Bank of Australia. The Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates at 4.35%, but hosed down expectations it would need to tighten policy again. Markets have now trimmed bets of another hike this year with an implied probability of 16% for September from 43% before. "Recent data indicate that, although inflation is declining, it is doing so more slowly than previously expected and remains high," the RBA said, adding that it would remain vigilant against upward risks. "The trajectory of interest rate changes that will best ensure inflation returns to the target level within a reasonable time frame remains uncertain, and the Board is not ruling anything in or out," the RBA warned.