| Time | Country | Event | Period | Previous value | Forecast | Actual |
|---|
| 01:30 | Australia | Retail Sales, M/M | March | 0.3% | 0.2% | -0.4% |
| 01:30 | China | Manufacturing PMI | April | 50.8 | 50.4 | 50.4 |
| 01:30 | China | Non-Manufacturing PMI | April | 53.0 | 52.2 | 51.2 |
| 01:45 | China | Markit/Caixin Manufacturing PMI | April | 51.1 | 51 | 51.4 |
| 05:30 | France | GDP, q/q | Quarter I | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 06:00 | Germany | Retail sales, real adjusted | March | -1.9% | 1.3% | 1.8% |
| 06:45 | France | CPI, m/m | April | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar rose markedly against major currencies, recovering from yesterday's fall, while investors are cautiously awaiting the Fed meeting.
The US Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona) rose by 0.28% to 105.88. Later today, the two-day Fed meeting will begin, while economists expect policymakers to decide to keep interest rates in the range of 5.25-5.50%, and will also note the need to keep rates at a high level for a longer time in conditions of steady inflation and a strong labor market. Markets will be closely examining the Fed's statement and comments by its Chairman Jerome Powell for clues on how many rate cuts policymakers consider appropriate this year. In addition to the results of the Fed meeting, investors will also pay attention to data on activity in the US manufacturing sector from ISM (on Wednesday) and the April report on employment (on Friday). Market pricing shows a first Fed rate cut is expected in November, with just over 30 basis points worth of easing expected this year. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 11.6% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed meeting in June, and a 29.9% probability of a rate cut in July.
The yen fell by 0.4% against the US dollar, partially offsetting yesterday's rally (+1.18%) caused by the alleged intervention of the Japanese authorities. Official data that will show whether the intervention was actually carried out will be available only at the end of May. While some market participants were targeting the 160 yen per dollar level as a possible trigger for intervention, analysts said that the Japanese authorities may not be targeting specific levels.
The Australian dollar fell 0.6% against the US dollar, reacting to weak Australian data. The Australian Bureau of Statistics said retail sales fell 0.4% m/m in March. That missed forecasts for an increase of 0.2% following the 0.3% gain in February. Individually, sales for household goods, clothing, department store, other retailing and cafes all were down in March, while food retailing was up. On a yearly basis, retail sales rose 0.8%.