Data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that the number of employed unexpectedly decreased in March, while the unemployment rate rose slightly, retreating from a 5-month low. Overall, the latest data indicated that the relatively tight labor market was still on track to loosen, albeit at a slower pace. Markets are still confident that the RBA's interest rates have reached their peak, but monetary policy easing is expected only in December (the probability of such an event is estimated at about 65%).
According to the report, employment in Australia decreased by 6.6 thousand in March, to 14.260 million, while economists expected an increase of 7.2 thousand. Meanwhile, the growth in February was revised up to 117.6 thousand from 116.5 thousand. Compared to March 2023, employment increased by 336.9 thousand or 2.4% of the year. The ABS also said that in March, the number of full-time employees increased by 27.9 thousand compared to February, and part-time employment fell by 34.5 thousand. The unemployment rate increased to 3.8% from 3.7% in February, but was below the consensus forecast (3.9%). The participation rate fell to 66.6% from 66.7% in February.
"The small drop in employment in March followed a larger-than-usual flow of people into employment in February... However, in March, the flows into employment had returned to a more usual pattern," said Bjorn Jarvis, ABS head of labor statistics.
According to the latest forecasts of the Central Bank, the unemployment rate will rise to 4.2% by June and to 4.3% by the end of 2024.