The price of gold jumped by more than 1%, returning to the record high reached the day before, as the latest US data strengthened the likelihood that the Fed will keep the rate at the current level for a longer time.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 1.0% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed meeting in May, and a 62.7% probability of a rate cut in June (compared to 70.2% a week earlier). In total, markets expect at least three Fed rate cuts of 25 basis points this year.
Meanwhile, the US dollar index was trading near its highest level since November 14, 2023, which limited further growth in precious metal prices.
The markets' attention is gradually shifting to the key report on the US labor market, which will be released on Friday. The report is expected to show that employment growth continued in March, but at a slower pace than in the previous three months, while wage growth slowed from 4.3% per annum in February to 4.1% (the lowest level since June 2021). Experts warn that if the report exceeds forecasts, it could become a catalyst for a drop in gold prices.