National
Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) announced on Wednesday that
it now sees the UK’s GDP to expand by 0.3 per cent in the first quarter of
2024, remaining broadly consistent with the longer-term trend of low, but
stable, economic growth in Britain. NIESR’s latest first-quarter growth projection
remained unchanged compared to its forecast in January.
NIESR also
noted that today’s ONS data, suggesting that the British GDP increased 0.2 per
cent m-o-m in January 2024, was better than its previous forecast of a 0.1 per
cent m-o-m advance. In the three months to January, Britain’s economy
contracted by 0.1 per cent q-o-q, matching NIESR’s previous projection.
According to
NIESR updated estimates, the UK’s GDP will likely be flat m-o-m in February and rise 0.1 m-o-m in March.
Commenting on
the latest report, NIESR’s associate economist Paula Bejarano Carbo noted that
in broader terms, UK economic growth has been near-zero since 2022 and GDP per
head remains lower than pre-COVID. “To escape the low-growth trap, structural
changes are needed, such as an increase in public investment, particularly in infrastructure,
education and health – which would also support growth in business investment,"
she added.