The S&P 500 futures are down 2.2% to 5,877
points, recovering slightly from the week's low at 5,844. The market appears to
be stabilising after a turbulent period driven by economic concerns and
geopolitical risks.
U.S. stocks faced pressure due to signs of a
slowing economy. The Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 98.3, the lowest
since April 2024. U.S. Q4 GDP growth slowed to 2.3% QoQ from 3.1% QoQ, while
initial jobless claims were mixed. Additional uncertainty came from U.S.
President Donald Trump, who reiterated the implementation of new tariffs. On
Wednesday, he avoided setting a specific date for the Canada and Mexico tariffs
but later posted on X that a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico, along with a 10%
tariff on China, would take effect on March 4. This further unsettled markets.
Nvidia (NVDA) reported stronger-than-expected
Q4 2024 revenue and profit but missed Q1 2025 expectations. This sent its stock
down 8.4% to $120.15, dragging the S&P 500 down 1.79% to 5,869 on Thursday.
Despite the turbulence, large investors appear
to be accumulating long positions. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) updated
its net inflows to $1.19 billion, up from $280.2 million last week, with an
additional $11.08 billion this week. This suggests confidence in a potential
market rebound.
The week will close with the release of the
January PCE Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure. A further
slowdown in inflation could support a recovery in equities.
The technical outlook
for the S&P 500 has changed to the downside. The index is now in an downside
formation, with primary targets at 5,700–5,800 points, which is close to the current
levels. So, this target could be reached easily. But a reversal from the
current levels should not be excluded as this scenario was executed four times
during the last four months.
In commodities, Brent
crude remains in a downtrend, trading at $72.80 per barrel, with downside
targets at $68.00–70.00 and resistance at $78.00–80.00. Prices are under
pressure, as traders are considering possible global economic downturn.
Gold prices are
hovering around $2,860 per troy ounce after breaking past the $2,850–2,880
resistance zone. The new all-time high now stands at $2,954 per ounce. The
rally appears to be losing momentum, with the next target at $2,940–2,960 per
ounce and extreme targets at $3,200–3,300. The upside scenario will be
invalidated if prices fall below $2,800.
In currency markets,
the U.S. Dollar is strengthening again, with EURUSD falling to 1.04000. This
decline could continue, while a sustained move above 1.05700 could push the
pair toward 1.09500–1.10500. For a downside scenario, EURUSD must remain below
1.04700.