Bitcoin (BTC) has gained 6.9% this week,
reaching $72,482, after briefly peaking at $73,653 on Tuesday. BTC is now
pushing to break its all-time high of $73,864.
There are several factors driving this rally.
Historically, Bitcoin tends to rise around 20% in October, though it had only
gained 15.7% by Tuesday. The upcoming U.S. presidential election is also a key
driver, as a victory by crypto proponent Donald Trump could boost market
sentiment. Trump has indicated that, if elected, he would consider asking Elon
Musk to lead a potential Department of Governmental Efficiency (D.O.G.E.),
causing Dogecoin to surge 31.0% to $0.1796—its highest level since April 12.
However, both Bitcoin and Dogecoin paused
their rally on Wednesday, despite continuing discussions around Musk’s
potential role in a new Republican administration’s crypto policy. Prediction
markets on Polymarket currently give Trump a 67.0% chance of winning, compared
to 33.0% for Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, with the gap doubling from 16%
last week. Other polls indicate a tighter race.
With the election only days away, the crypto
market may continue to rally, and BTC could rise to $76,400. Options trading
for BTC on November 8 suggests a target of $80,000. The strong Q3 earnings
season for major tech companies such as Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Apple, and
Amazon could also bolster BTC, following positive reports from Netflix, Tesla,
and Alphabet.
Large investors are betting on a positive
outcome for crypto. Last week, Bitcoin ETFs managed by BlackRock (IBIT),
Fidelity (FBTC), and Grayscale (GBTC) saw net inflows of $947.2 million, and
another $348.8 million flowed into spot Bitcoin ETFs in the first two days of
this week.
Technically, BTC may see a pullback in
November depending on election results, but is expected to rise in December and
January, potentially reaching $90,000-100,000 per coin.