Bitcoin (BTC) prices are dropping by 3.0% to
$66,500, despite having several upside drivers. Large investors have made
significant bets on Bitcoin's rise. BlackRock’s IBIT, Fidelity’s FBTC, and
Grayscale’s GBTC reported $1.9 billion in net inflows last week, while all BTC
ETFs collectively saw $2.0 billion in inflows, the highest since July. IBIT had
record inflows since mid-March, and this week investors are continuing to
aggressively add long positions on Bitcoin.
Bitcoin remains on an upward trajectory after
climbing above the 30-week moving average and hitting resistance at $69,000.
Though prices have since retreated, the current momentum suggests that this
level could be breached soon. Additionally, the potential for former U.S.
President Donald Trump, a known cryptocurrency advocate, to win the upcoming
presidential election has increased to 58.0%, up from 53.0% last Wednesday,
further boosting Bitcoin's bullish outlook.
However, "Uptober" (historically a
strong month for Bitcoin) may end with only a 4.5% rise for the cryptocurrency,
compared to the average historical rise of 20.0%. The question remains whether
Bitcoin will see a surge during the final week of the month. According to
options data, the average strike price suggests Bitcoin could hit $75,000 by
November 8, with a range of $80,000 to $100,000 by December 27.
A rapid price increase in October is unlikely,
and investors may expect a gradual rise by the end of 2024. Historically,
Bitcoin prices have risen by an average of 6.0% in November and 12.0% in
December. If Bitcoin closes October at around $67,000, it could reach
$79,000-80,000 by the year's end.
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin could see
some pullback by the end of November, largely depending on the outcome of the
U.S. elections. However, in December and January, prices are likely to resume
their upward trend, potentially targeting $90,000-100,000.