S&P 500
broad market index futures are rising by 0.6% to 5739 points this week. The
benchmark has set a new all-time record at 5773 points and is very close to
pass the resistance at 5700-5800 points.
Large investors appear
to be targeting extreme levels between 6100-6200 points. Recent fund flows into
the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) reinforce this view, with revised net
inflows of $4.1 billion last week and another $13.8 billion this week— the
highest since June. Historically, similar inflows have driven the S&P 500 up
by 4%, suggesting a potential rise to 5950 points in the near term. This
momentum points to a likely "election rally" in the stock market,
particularly in early October. At least the first half of October would be on the positive side.
So, what
next? Despite the bullish
movement, risks remain, and a potential downside scenario could emerge if a
clear reversal pattern materializes on the charts. Investors are closely
watching the release of the August PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures)
inflation index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Headline PCE is expected
to slow to 2.3% YoY, and core PCE is forecasted at 2.7% YoY. If these
expectations are met, the rally could slow by the end of the week.
The next
week will be very important, as Nonfarm Payrolls data will be released next
Friday. This report may have a critical impact before the next Fed meeting and
presidential elections in November. This report will define the trend in the
U.S. labour market. Large investors are seen expecting a positive report.
Technically, the
S&P 500 index outlook is unchanged. The benchmark hit its primary target at
5700-5800 points within an upside formation. Extreme targets are located at
6100-6200 points. Currently, the index is holding above the resistance at 5690-5710
points. If it could surpass the 5800 level the index may continue to climb
towards the extreme targets at 6100-6200 points.
Brent crude oil prices
fell to the support at $70.00-72.00 per barrel. The Organization of the
Petroleum Exporting countries and its allies (OPEC+) has decided to postpone
production increases by December. Hurricane season has started in the Gulf of
Mexico. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are rising. This has provided
some support for prices. Nevertheless, they retreated to the support at
$70.00-72.00 per barrel by the end of the week. The nearest resistance level is
at $79.00-81.00 per barrel. But the reach of this level is unlikely.
Gold has achieved its
mid-term targets of $2,000-2,100 per ounce and extreme target $2,400-2,500.
Investors have pushed through the resistance at $2,590-2,610 per ounce and are
targeting the next resistance at $2750-2770. If no reversal will occur prices
could continue to rise towards $2,850 per ounce, and possibly further up to
$3,200-3,300 per ounce.
The EURUSD edged lower
to 1.11400. The pair is shy to signal a possible upside towards
1.14000-1.15000, and may return to 1.10000-1.11000 trading range. Then the pair
would have higher chances to break through the support at 1.10000 and fall
towards 1.05000-1.07000. Alternatively, the pair may rise above the resistance
at 1.11000 to the extreme targets at 1.14000-1.15000.