Bitcoin (BTC) has seen
some volatility this week, rising 3.9% to $56,600, but retreating from a recent
high of $58,014 on September 10. It was near a crucial resistance level of
$60,000-62,000, but political uncertainties, particularly related to the U.S.
presidential election, have contributed to the recent price action.
She won the
Presidential Debate late Tuesday. CNN poll demonstrates Harris took over Republican
Donald Trump with 63% against 36%. Polymarket has almost the same picture with
59% for Harris and 41% for Trump. Kamala
Harris' strong performance in the recent debate, according to various polls,
has spooked some crypto investors, given the Democratic Party's tougher stance
on cryptocurrency regulation. Analysts at Bernstein believe that a Harris win
could push Bitcoin down to $30,000-40,000, while a Trump victory could propel
it to $80,000-90,000.
From a technical
point of view, the upside scenario for the Bitcoin is more likely. It could
continue to gain upside momentum by the end of October, and continue to rise towards
$80,000-90,000 in December. Considering a post-halving scenario BTC has to be
at $80,000-90,000 by the end of October. From a political perspective, Harris now
has higher chances to take the office.
So, an
upside scenario with BTC rally before the election is more likely. The funding rates for perpetual swaps going
negative, as noted by K33 Research, suggest that the current market environment
could favor a bullish move, with historical patterns indicating a potential
return of 55-79% over the next 90 days.
Investors remain
sensitive to macroeconomic data, with the latest U.S. reports showing a
weakening economy. IBIT from BlackRock, FBTC from Fidelity and GBTC from Grayscale lost $510.2 million last week, and $138.3 million during the
first two days of this week. Declining inflation may help to stop fund outflows.
Should inflation data come in
favorably, it might encourage a reversal of these outflows and push Bitcoin
back toward the $60,000-62,000 resistance. Alternatively, prices may slid to the strong
support at $50,000-52,000 per coin.