Bitcoin (BTC) is losing 1.8% this week,
dropping to $60,800—a disappointing start to July. However, investors remain
hopeful for a summer rally in the crypto market, anticipating BTC to reach a
new all-time high. Despite an 8% decline in June, net inflows into spot
BTC-ETFs were positive, amounting to $790 million. On the first days of July,
net inflows were also positive, with IBIT from BlackRock receiving $82.4
million, although FBTC from Fidelity and Grayscale lost $53.5 million combined.
Total net inflows for the start of the month stand at $28.9 million.
Standard Chartered has updated its BTC price
target to above $73,864 by the end of August and above $100,000 by November.
However, no immediate catalyst is driving crypto asset prices higher. Standard
Chartered also warns of potential risks, suggesting BTC could briefly drop to
$50,000 if Joe Biden exits the presidential race. The logic is that a Trump
presidency would likely lead to new tariff wars, primarily with China, boosting
inflation and compelling the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain high interest
rates longer—a negative scenario for the crypto industry.
Should Biden's withdrawal increase Trump's
chances of winning, BTC prices might fall below the $60,000 support level and
trend toward $50,000. Conversely, if Biden continues his campaign and improves
his prospects, cryptocurrencies are expected to react positively.
Additionally, the U.S. Securities and Exchange
Commission has asked spot Ethereum-ETF applicants to update their applications
by next Monday, potentially signaling the start of trading these new
instruments by the end of July. This could inject another $5.0 billion into the
market during the first trading month. BlackRock has mentioned a second wave of
institutional money inflows, this time potentially driven by pension and
sovereign funds.
Historically, BTC has averaged an 11.0% gain
in July over the past decade, suggesting a possible rise to $68,000-$70,000
this month. In other industry news, Kraken crypto exchange is considering using
nuclear power for its data centers, looking at small modular nuclear reactors
to integrate directly with its facilities. This move could signify a new trend
in the industry, addressing the need for cheap energy and potentially
propelling the sector to new heights.